Several enabling military factors specific to Syria constituted necessary preconditions for the intervention: air access to the theater, permission to use ports and airbases, and the presence of allies on the ground. Recent air strikes come as Moscow moves away from the “conservative” military doctrine that prevailed after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Russia reduced its defense budget from 30 percent of GDP to about 4.5 percent. Russia’s 2015 National Security Strategy lists two specific strategic objectives applicable to Syria—the first is security by “strengthening the country’s defense,” and the second is focused on international recognition and national dignity by “consolidating the Russian Federation’s status as a leading world power, whose action… Russia may be hoping that its military presence and economic projects in Syria will increase the Syrian regime’s dependency on Moscow, which would have greater influence on the regime’s political and military decisions. The Syrian regime, suffering successive military defeats, is losing its ability to maintain centralized control since the number of local and foreign pro-regime militias that operate outside the framework of the Syrian army has increased. Where and under what conditions could Russia intervene in other civil conflicts outside of post-Soviet Eurasia? The new Russian military action in Syria is partly a response to its exclusion from the U.S.-led international coalition to fight the Islamic State (IS). Pressuring the Kurds. ä½ å°ç¦»å¼æ¸ åâå¡å åºä¸å¿ç½ç«ï¼è¿å ¥å¡å åºå ¶ä»å ¨çä¸å¿çç½ç«ã, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Russia’s Military Intervention in Syria . Russia's 2015 military intervention in Syria's civil war took many by surprise and raised questions about the potential for similar actions in other conflicts outside of post-Soviet Eurasia. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, by Samuel Charap, Elina Treyger, Edward Geist. The Russian military campaign in Syria has now been underway for several weeks. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. In the same vein, Moscow has been stressing that it is not committed to preserving Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but rather its recent strikes were an attempt to “avoid total disaster in Syria.” But Moscow has a vested interest in keeping Assad in power, and establishing a primary military presence in Syria gives it a foothold to rescue the Syrian regime if or when it faces the risk of collapse. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. • Ensure that the example of Syria reaffirms Russia’s claim to having a say in outcome of major RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Intervention short of the direct, overt use of the military seen in Syria in 2015, but greater than mere diplomacy, requires that the conflict in question present a high level of threat (as in Afghanistan), promise significant geopolitical benefits (as in Libya), or demonstrate moderate levels of both (as in Syria pre-2015). n September 2015, Russia launched a series of airstrikes in Syria, marking the beginning of a significant and sustained military intervention.Many in the Western policy community were sur-prised by Russia’s actions. Russia seems to be rushing towards investing in Syria’s energy sector because it would rather have a share in its energy development than compete with it. In response to the media hype accompanying its recent military intervention in Syria, Moscow has once again reverted to talk of protecting the Syrian state and religious minorities against … All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Charap, Samuel, Elina Treyger, and Edward Geist, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, Entrepreneurship in America: Challenges and Opportunities, Updating Personnel Vetting and Security Clearance Guidelines for Future Generations, Book Review: 'Liberalism, the Blob, and American Foreign Policy: Evidence and Methodology' by Robert Jervis. "Russia has several objectives i… Russia’s economy, largely driven by the oil and gas sectors. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page. In this sense, the military expansion in Syria is part of a bigger Russian expansion that includes establishing military bases in several countries, including Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Seychelles, Singapore, and Belarus. Russian forces, therefore, will remain in Syria, spending finite resources in ways that are less threatening to the United States than if they were used elsewhere in Europe or in the Mediterranean basin. This threatens Russia’s own hegemony over the export of gas to the European continent (Russia’s share of total European gas imports exceeds 64 percent). Three political factors emerge as primary drivers of the decision: the perception that an adverse military outcome—the collapse of the Assad regime—was imminent and that it could be prevented by intervening; the belief that this outcome would have had grave security implications; and the view that alternative means (e.g., diplomacy) had proven futile. For his part, Syrian Minister of Petroleum Suleiman al-Abbas promised this delegation that “Russian companies will have a major role in the investment opportunities available in the future.”. The research reported here was commissioned by USAFE-AFAFRICA A5/8/9 and conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE. In light of this military vulnerability, Russia hopes that increasing its military influence in Syria will give it the political leverage to get Assad to make genuine concessions in negotiations with the United States and regional countries—and ultimately reach a settlement that can fully safeguard Russian interests in Syria. Russia’s Long-Term Aims in Syria. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. Although Damascus has always had good political relations with Moscow, trade between the two only became significant after the outbreak of protests in 2011. • Ensure that Russia’s reputation as a reliable protector of its allies (in the eyes of the latter) is not damaged by a forceful removal of Assad from power. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. “The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told senators in testimony last month. What drives Russian leaders' decisionmaking on intervention? Russia has not won conclusively in Syria, but may not need to in order to achieve its objectives. Russia’s strategic objectives provide the starting point for understanding its campaign design in Syria. The U.S. military should expect Russian forces, even if only covertly or in low numbers, to be present in nearly any conflict zone in the Middle East, North Africa, and beyond. Charap, Samuel, Elina Treyger, and Edward Geist, Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria. It Is Time to Transform U.S. Arguably, if the analytical community had more effectively understood Russia’s interests, objectives… Washington supports them, massacring civilians instead, along with destroying vital infrastructure. On 18 January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia would neutralise any threats from Damascus that Israel perceives to its security. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—nota- ... objectives. This set of circumstances is very unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. The analysis demonstrates that Moscow's decision to intervene in Syria in 2015 resulted from an extraordinary confluence of political drivers and military conditions. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. This prompted it to preserve a permanent presence for its fleets in the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, where the Syrian cities of Tartus and Latakia are its only outlets. Assad’s ability to obstruct these initiatives shows how weak Russian influence is within the agencies of the Syrian regime. The Russian military presence in Syria can also help it strengthen the countries’ current modest economic ties and establish long-term ones. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention. Russia—a country that relies heavily on the export of natural gas—is well aware of the importance of Syria’s location as a possible site for a network of oil and gas pipelines to Turkey and then Europe.
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